Mr. Macron, the sixth French President to grace the Republic Day celebrations, stepped into the breach when U.S. President Joseph Biden declined the invitation. In addition, India and France had in 2023 already sealed a number of agreements as they marked 25 years of their strategic partnership — a year that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Macron meet a number of times.
Not only had the two countries already announced a fairly ambitious “Horizon 2047” relationship road map but they had also stated plans for joint production of military hardware, cutting-edge technology transfers and new purchase deals for French aircraft, engines and submarines.
The two sides signed MoU documents on agriculture, digital health and science and technology cooperation. An assembly-line manufacture of civilian helicopters (Airbus-Tata) was a first, but a private B2B deal. The two sides also issued a joint statement on regional and international developments. India has been unable to find such common ground with other partners including the U.S. and Russia on these issues but was able to take shared positions with France on the condemnation of terror attacks in Israel, the need for humanitarian assistance in Gaza and Ukraine, and concerns over the Red Sea attacks.
While they did not demonstrate progress in other areas of cooperation, including big ticket defence hardware deals being negotiated, nuclear cooperation for the long-delayed power project in Jaitapur and for small modular reactors, it is clear that each is a work in progress, demonstrating the continuity in a partnership built on a mutual respect for strategic autonomy, which Mr. Macron said at the presidential banquet was also driven by their shared commitment to “tradition and innovation”.
Despite the absence of an explicit call for a ceasefire, the ruling handed down by the International Court of Justice is a momentous one that binds Israel to its obligation to prevent acts of genocide in its ongoing military operations in Gaza.
The UN’s highest judicial body has spelt out provisional measures after finding that “at least some of the acts and omissions alleged by South Africa to have been committed by Israel in Gaza appear to be capable of falling within the provisions of the [Genocide] Convention”.
The ICJ has directed Israel to take effective and immediate measures to ensure humanitarian assistance and basic services to Gaza.
While Israel and its allies highlight the absence of an order to stop military action, it cannot be ignored that the order is tailored to achieving the objective of preventing genocide, a term that includes killing members of the targeted group, Palestinians, in this case causing serious bodily and mental harm to them and deliberately inflicting on them conditions of life aimed at bringing about the group’s physical destruction.
CONCLUSION: The part of the ruling that asks for a report in one month on steps taken to implement the measures can only mean that Israel has to demonstrate progress on the extent of humanitarian aid it has permitted.
Seldom has a new year commenced with such deep foreboding as 2024. Both the geopolitical and domestic outlook appear distinctly unfavorable.
The war in Ukraine, while stalemated at present, is set to enter a new phase. Since neither side appears ready for peace talks or negotiations, the danger is that one side or the other might be tempted to escalate matters in their favour by resorting to still more dangerous weapons available in their armoury, not excluding nuclear.
West Asia is the greater worry: The Israel-Hamas conflict ---the Iran-Pakistan stand-off in recent week -------Iran supporting Houthis in Red Sea and on war with Iraq & Pakistan.
Indo-Pacific Region : Several underlying tensions ----The elections in Taiwan have produced an anti-China dispensation ------Many countries in east Asia such as the Philippines, may feel encouraged to display a more aggressive mien in their disputes with China over territories -------The area is already being touted as one of the main areas of strategic contestation between the U.S. and China, and, hence, could bring in the U.S. to stake its claims.
India’s problems, external and internal-All this also suggests that 2024 may not see any lowering of tensions between India and China.
India may also be required this year to spruce up its relationship with some of its neighbors. Any simulation of ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’ of the kind practised by China, would not suit India when it comes to its neighbours such as the Maldives. India must adhere to its traditional policy of maintaining excellent relations with all countries, specially those in the South Asian region. Bhutan falls into a special category and will need close attention. Every effort needs to be made in 2024 to strengthen relations with Bhutan which is being aggressively wooed by China.
After Ayodhya’s event It is contributing to a sharp cleavage among the electorate along religious and other lines, a consequence of which could be heightened communal tensions following the elections. It is imperative, after the elections, that care is taken to see that the situation does not get out of hand.
Apart from the communal aspect, close attention may also need to be paid to some of the other problems that had plagued India in the past, but have remained dormant. Manipur is a case in point, viz., that peace in the Northeast cannot be taken for granted. Apart from Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Assam, especially the last named with the United Liberation Front of Assam’s anti-talk faction again raising its head need close attention.
On the mainland, left-wing extremist activity has declined of late, but should not be ignored since its underpinnings and its ability to resort to violent attacks in some of the mainland States of the country remain. Internal security during 2024 will, thus, demand heightened vigilance.
Parliament’s functioning - The year 2024 could also be the year of reckoning for India’s Parliament------First, came the lamentable incident where Parliament security was breached by two outsiders-----followed by the suspension of 146 members of both Houses-----If the situation does not improve even after a new Parliament is convened, it would only provide ammunition to opponents of parliamentary democracy.
By conferring the Kottai Ameer Communal Harmony Award for the year 2024 on Mohammed Zubair, fact-checker and the co-founder of AltNews, during the 75th Republic Day celebrations, the Tamil Nadu government has reiterated the need to prevent the spread of false information. Former Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi had instituted the award in the name of Kottai Ameer, who fought for communal amity and fell victim to communal elements.
The award has been presented to Mr. Zubair just months after the State government set up an 80-member fact-check unit to deal with “misinformation and disinformation pertaining to the State government” emanating from “all media platforms”.
But many saw this as a retrograde step and fear that the ombudsman agency could end up infringing upon the freedom of the press and dictate news. Some political parties, too, did not approve of the move. The principal opposition party in the State, the AIADMK, filed a public interest litigation petition before the Madras High Court questioning the competence of the State government in constituting a fact-check unit.
There are two modes of wage payments in MGNREGS: account-based and ABPS.
ABPS: A worker’s Aadhaar number must be seeded with their job card, which means authenticating her job card details with the Aadhaar database.
Second, their Aadhaar must be linked to their bank account.
Third, the Aadhaar number of each worker must be mapped correctly through their bank branch with a software mapper of the National Payments Corporation of India.
Evaluating claims - The government has claimed that ABPS would remove duplicate job cards, reduce wage payment delays, and have lower payment rejections. Aside from some uses in assessing duplicates, the other claimed reasons stand on questionable grounds.
In response to a question in the Lok Sabha, the Rural Development Ministry reported that there was a 247% increase in job card deletions in FY 2022–23 compared to previous years. In the last two years alone, job cards of over 7 crore workers got deleted. As per the government’s own data, as on January 11, 2024, out of a total of 25.6 crore registered workers, only 16.9 crore workers are eligible for ABPS while all workers are eligible for account-based payments.
Conclusion: Based on a sample of 3.2 crore wage transactions, the paper analyses if there is any statistically significant difference in the time to transfer wages using account-based payments and ABPS. If all the transactions using the two payment modes were considered and then one observed that ABPS was quicker than account-based by 3%, then the Rural Development Ministry’s claims of ‘gains’ could be considered a talking point. But LibTech’s study is based on a sample of 3.2 crore transactions. In a sample dataset, principles of statistical science dictates that only if the difference is statistically significant can we claim that one payment system is more efficient than the other. But the difference was not statistically significant, which provides evidence that the ABPS is not quicker than account-based payments.
In February, it will be three years since the army seized power in Myanmar, overthrowing a democratically elected government headed by Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup prompted a massive civil disobedience movement. The deposed members of parliament formed a National Unity Government that constituted the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and called for an armed uprising. The fragile peace between major ethnic armed organisations and the military collapsed, as the former’s objective of establishing federal democracy was no longer feasible under army dictatorship.
Discontent and territorial loss-If one objective of the coup was to strengthen national unity, the Myanmar military has failed spectacularly. In fact, the military has conceded large tracts of territory to the ethnic armed organisations and PDFs. But losing control of territory to armed groups is not new for the army; the military has frequently lost ground to ethnic armed groups and the now defunct Communist Party of Burma, but subsequently recovered some of the losses.
China and its interests- Given these circumstances, China has a multi-layered strategy to protect its interests. On international platforms, China robustly defends the Myanmar military from international censure. Simultaneously, various ethnic armed organisations on Myanmar’s northern border have close relations with China.
ASEAN - The principal regional actor, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has articulated a five-point consensus and denied the Myanmar military a place at its summits. Despite repeated efforts, the ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar was prevented from having meaningful interactions with all the relevant stakeholders. Therefore ASEAN has not been able to alter the trajectory of Myanmar’s politics, but some ASEAN members are shunning their customary reticence and are now sharply critical of the Myanmar coup.
New Delhi’s outreach - India could also consider a more proactive humanitarian approach to provide succour to displaced communities in Myanmar. Such an initiative could also reduce the inflow of refugees into India.
