Governor's rule was imposed in Jammu & Kashmir over five years ago, leading to significant changes in the state including the removal of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories. The legality of these changes is under question, with the Supreme Court yet to give its verdict.
The Lok Sabha has passed two bills related to Jammu and Kashmir- the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Amendment) Bill, 2023 and the Jammu and Kashmir Reservation (Amendment) Bill, 2023. The former increases the total number of Assembly seats and empowers the Lieutenant-Governor to effect some nominations. The latter substitutes the term "weak and underprivileged classes" with "Other Backward Classes" in the J&K Reservation Act, 2004.
The proposed changes in the Lok Sabha without the involvement of elected representatives from J&K may make the citizens feel alienated. This, coupled with the suspension of political and civil liberties of politicians, arbitrary arrests and detentions, communication shutdowns, a chilling effect on the media, and long power cuts, presents a challenge to any change in the political life of J&K. The region's status as one affected by separatism and terrorism should not make the citizens feel excluded.
South Asian states are doubtful of India's dominance in their region.
India's foreign policy aims to be a leader of global south and an arbiter in global politics, but South Asia is not eager to support India's vision. This is hindering India's progress indirectly.
India faces three types of dilemmas in the neighborhood-
The new government in the Maldives is requesting that Indians leave, indicating the emergence of politically anti-India regimes in South Asia.
India faces a structural dilemma due to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing's increasing influence in South Asia, which is leading to the region's smaller states becoming more entangled with the initiative.
China's attempt to resolve border disputes with its neighboring countries, excluding India, such as with Bhutan, is a tactic to gain influence in the region.
South Asian states are doubtful of India's dominance in their region.
India's foreign policy aims to be a leader of global south and an arbiter in global politics, but South Asia is not eager to support India's vision. This is hindering India's progress indirectly.
India faces three types of dilemmas in the neighborhood-
The new government in the Maldives is requesting that Indians leave, indicating the emergence of politically anti-India regimes in South Asia.
India faces a structural dilemma due to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing's increasing influence in South Asia, which is leading to the region's smaller states becoming more entangled with the initiative.
China's attempt to resolve border disputes with its neighboring countries, excluding India, such as with Bhutan, is a tactic to gain influence in the region.
New Delhi’s dilemmas, the causes: There are three broad sets of causes behind the dilemmas India faces in the neighbourhood-
The United States presence in South Asia is declining after being a constant geopolitical force in the region for a long time.
Due to the lack of interconnectivity and poverty in most of the ASEAN States, the people of the region tend to rely on a power that can fulfil their material needs. India's ability to do so is limited, making China the more attractive option.
China benefits from being a non-resident power in the region, avoiding complications arising from being a resident power, such as ethnic, linguistic, or religious issues.
What can be done?
India's primacy in the old South Asia is no longer present, and China has emerged as a serious contender for regional dominance in the new Southern Asia- India must accept this reality
To prevent the region from becoming Sino-centric, New Delhi should actively engage with friendly external actors in the area.
Indian diplomacy should engage with various actors in neighboring countries and aim to diminish anti-India sentiments rather than hating those who hold them.
India's foreign policy implementation is hampered by a shortage of diplomats, which is a significant challenge for a country with a population of 1.4 billion.
