GS Paper 2: India and its neighbourhood- relations

Context:
Taiwan will vote for a new President soon as the outcome of the election is likely to influence Taiwan’s relationship with China.


Background of Taiwan-China ties-:
Taiwan's Historical Shifts:- Taiwan came under Japanese control in the late 19th century, and then the Republic of China (ROC) was established after the Xinhai Revolution in 1911.
Civil war erupted in 1927 between the Kuomintang-led ROC and communist forces.

Split of China and Taiwan:- The communists took over mainland China in 1949, forming the People’s Republic of China (PRC), while the ROC relocated to Taiwan.
Both claimed to be legitimate China, but international recognition favoured the PRC, leaving Taiwan with limited recognition.

Divergent Political Views in Taiwan:- The Kuomintang (KMT) historically ruled Taiwan, supporting talks for peace with China and a 'One China' concept that includes Taiwan.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in power intermittently, maintains cautious relations with China, advocating Taiwan's sovereignty without formally declaring independence.

Geo-Political Tensions:- Concerns arise over China's aggressive stance towards Taiwan, raising fears of potential conflict or invasion.
President Xi Jinping signalled China's readiness to use force to resolve the "Taiwan issue."

US Support for Taiwan:- The United States, while having informal ties with Taiwan, affirmed its support.
President Joe Biden confirmed the US's willingness to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion in a 2022 interview.


Taiwanese view of China-:
There is a consistent decline in positive attitudes towards China among Taiwanese people.
This decline was observed in multiple surveys, indicating a notable trend.
The data showed a significant increase in disagreement with the notion that China is a friend to Taiwan, particularly from 2019 onward.
The rise in disagreement, represented by the increase in the red bar, was attributed to concerns over China's actions, specifically its perceived suppression of Hong Kong.
This sentiment has influenced Taiwanese perceptions of China and its policies, contributing to the decline in positive attitudes towards the Chinese government.


Taiwanese relation with US-:
Preference for Status Quo:- Around 91% of respondents favored maintaining the status quo rather than opting for unification with China or pursuing independence.
This preference aligns with stability, emphasizing the desire to uphold democracy and peace simultaneously, as stated by Prof Hsin-Hsin Pan.

US as a Partner and Trust Issues:- While the US is perceived as a potential military ally, there's a level of apprehension among Taiwanese people.
Approximately 33.9% of respondents considered the US trustworthy, while 55.3% disagreed, partially influenced by the situation in Ukraine.
Taiwanese reference the US's response to Ukraine and its implications for Taiwan's security.

US Security Commitment:- Despite trust concerns, nearly 60% of respondents still view the US security commitment as credible, highlighting a nuanced perception of the US role in Taiwanese security matters.

Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry and Security:- The survey inquired about the significance of Taiwan's position as a leading semiconductor manufacturer in potentially securing US intervention in case of an attack.
Semiconductors are crucial in various modern technologies, raising questions about their impact on Taiwan's security and potential US support.


US interest in Taiwan-:
Taiwan is a pivotal part of a chain of islands that includes several US-friendly territories.
It is forming a strategic leverage point for countering China's expansionist ambitions.
Despite lacking formal diplomatic relations, the US is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) to equip Taiwan for its defense, making it the island's primary arms supplier.
The US adheres to a 'strategic ambiguity' policy regarding Taiwan.


Hong Kong Issue-:
'One Country, Two Systems':- Hong Kong operated under this framework after its handover to China in 1997, initially allowing it to maintain its capitalist and more liberal system within China.
However, recent years have seen increased Chinese influence in Hong Kong's governance, raising concerns about eroding autonomy.

Erosion of Promise:- Attempts by China to influence elections, law enforcement, and introduce specific laws in Hong Kong have sparked backlash and protests since 2014.
This has heightened the perception that the 'two systems' promise is being undermined.

Triggering Events:- The intensification of protests in 2019 stemmed from an extradition law that was feared to compromise Hong Kong's autonomy, potentially being used against anti-China activists.
This further fueled anti-government and anti-China sentiments.

Taiwanese Perception:- The suppression of Hong Kong resonates strongly with Taiwanese people due to various issues, including alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet, military threats, aggressive diplomatic approaches, and provocative actions near Taiwan.
These factors collectively contributed to a decline in positive views of China among Taiwanese individuals, fostering a sense of distrust towards China.

Taiwan's Strategic Significance:
Taiwan is strategically located in the western Pacific near China, Japan, and the Philippines.
It acts as a crucial link to Southeast Asia and the South China Sea, pivotal for global trade and security.
Renowned for its high-tech electronics, especially semiconductors, Taiwan hosts leading global technology firms and dominates semiconductor production.
It manufactures over 60% of the world's chips and 90% of the most advanced ones.
Backed by a modern and robust military, Taiwan prioritizes safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
As a key player in regional and global geopolitics, Taiwan's influence extends beyond the Asia-Pacific, potentially shaping the global balance of power.


Related Search:
One China Policy
South China Sea

Prelims Specific:
Background of Taiwan-China ties
About Hong Cong Issue
Reasons for conflict b/n China & Taiwan
Taiwan's Strategic Significance
US interest in Taiwan